Over the teeth, past the gums; Look out stomach, here it's comes!!! Main-course time. Yum-yum!!! This is where I do the "putting my money where my mouth is" part. Hehe.
Based on my information and assessment of the current geo-political and military situation, this is what I think is going to happen next in World War Three.
Ahhh...roast lamb!!! Iraq. The military will stage more successful operations against well-equipped and trained insurgents for the simple fact that Iran is training thousands of them and they are now hitting the field. More targets for our guys, and our military works best searching and destroying rather than patrolling and policing. So expect some large individual battle successes in the near future.
Baghdad will continue to be lawless for the simple reason that there is no will on the part of the local government or police forces to aggressively police the city, and our own military left FAR, FAR, FAR too much intact infra-structure for the "insurgents" to operate from. You morons in the Pentagon want to fight wars like partial wars, then be prepared for partial victories. I would expect pretty much a status quo in Baghdad. The border with Iran will begin drawing American military resources there as more and more Iranian-trained "insurgents" cross-over and enter the battlefield.
I would not expect any further American military build-up in Iraq for the following reasons. 1) It's not politically popular. And 2) Bush's own military advisers believe there are enough troops to maintain status quo in Iraq and that additional assets would be best served in a more flexible location. And we are not talking Okinawa. If Bush does follow through on the "surge" of 20,000 troops, the end result will be that about 20,000 extra troops will be near the Iranian border, so the point becomes moot anyway.
Which brings us to our next delicacy. Roast pig!!! Mmmmm. This chef knows what I like. Iran. Any discussion of Iran must be understood within the context of Ahmadinejad himself. Just as Nazi Germany cannot be understood without understanding Hitler and the Soviet Union cannot be understood without understanding Stalin. Ahmadinejad is a radical Islamic fanatic who believes his mission on Earth is to fulfill the prophecies of the Koran. He is fully prepared to sacrifice his nation and himself for his vision of bringing about the Islamic messiah, or "Mahdi". In fact, his martyrdom is basically required.
Ahmadinejad will accelerate his nuclear weapons program and fortify and harden his nuclear sites in the coming months. That's a no-brainer though. He will also test a nuclear device shortly, perhaps as early as this summer or fall. However, prior to that he will launch a limited and perhaps small-scale attack on American forces from inside his own border. Short-range surface to surface missiles and artillery are the most likely prospects. That has proved an effective provoking action when used by Hezbollah guerrillas against Israel, and since Hezbollah merely follows whatever tactics that Iran suggests, this tactic becomes even more likely. Patrol craft missile attacks against the U.S. Navy are also highly likely, since Ahmadinejad has much to gain and little to lose from sinking a U.S. Naval vessel at the cost of a few patrol craft. By doing this, Ahmadinejad forces our military into a defensive stance, which dramatically decreases the odds of an immediate air-strike against his nuclear facilities. This pins our military down with expectation or dares us to invade his fairly easily defended country. Either option buys him the time he so desperately needs.
How many of you have seen "The Terminator"? Recall how long it took SKYNET to launch it's missiles after it had gained control? I'll refresh you. Immediately. As in two-minutes. This is how long Ahmadinejad will wait to launch once he has warhead capability. The DAY that he acquires a nuke, it will be launched at Israel. He has already stated that he intends to destroy Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem. Those will be his first three targets. As I stated in Part One, he will also most likely launch a strike against our Naval Task Forces in the Persian Gulf, since they present a far greater threat to him than our ground forces do. Depending upon the world's response, his second strike, if he has that capability left, will be against Rome and possibly even Athens. Why Rome? It's the capital of Christianity. Why Athens? It's symbolically the birthplace of Western Civilization. This fruitcake thinks in these kinds of terms.
(burp)
Time for the next course. Oh boy. Shish-kebob. Yummy. Pakistan/Afghanistan. I do not anticipate any major changes in either situation outside of current status quo within the next year. Immediately prior to Ahmadinejad's attack, Al Queda forces will attempt again to assassinate Mushareef and take control of Pakistan. My money says it will be foiled....but just barely....again.
Uh-oh. Kimchi. I may have to pass on this shit. You have to be functionally insane just to think about eating it. North Korea. Kim Jong is living his dream come true. He managed to acquire nuclear weapons without getting attacked. Now he can (and has already begun) aggressively exporting his nuclear technology and possibly even a warhead itself to any and all enemies of America. Those of you who scoffed at President Bush's "Axis of Evil" speeches may want to hide when the nukes start falling. Your lives won't be worth spit. I do not see any military action from North Korea at all, since they already won their war and all of their objectives. Thanks Mr. Clinton!!! Say "Hi" to the slut for us.
Which brings us to our next main course. Baby back ribs!!!! Oh, double yummy. Hezbollah. The Islamic storm troopers. The moslem SS. Hezbollah and their current activities in Lebanon are the reason I can make all of these predictions. You see, when Ahmadinejad told Nasrallah to start civil war in Lebanon again, but slowly escalate it, he was tipping his poker hand. This lets me know that he has set his military timetable in action. Once that has begun, events start to act of their own accord.
In the coming months, Hezbollah will escalate their civil-war in Lebanon, and just prior to Iran's acquisition of a nuclear warhead, they will stage another all-out attack on Israel. This will be the signal. Their aim will be the same as the reason for attacking American troops. Put the USA and IDF forces on the defensive and buy Ahmadinejad time and the necessary confusion to launch his three nukes at Israel. I will predict that Hezbollah will begin an attack on Israel this coming summer, perhaps early fall.
For tactical reasons, I do not think that Hezbollah cells in the United States will begin staging attacks until AFTER Ahmadinejad tries to nuke Israel. By waiting until after his nuclear attack, it will plunge the American leadership further into conflicting priorities and decisions, thereby delaying our response and giving the enemy more time to press his attacks.
And now we finally get to one of my favorite dishes, salt herring with apples. Oh, ye Land of Israel!!! As these events develop and move forward, Israel's response and proficiency will end up being the strategic determinant as to how this war proceeds. In other words, Israel will most definitely air-strike Iran prior to Ahmadinejad's completion of nukes, however, the larger question becomes the success of the mission. If IDF manages to destroy all of his nuclear production capability then nuclear war will have been averted for the time being. Keyword: time being. However, if even one warhead remains, then events will proceed as I have foreseen. I fully expect Israel to continue as it does today, fighting from a defensive posture and using it's long-range air-strike capability to neutralize strategic nuclear threats at the last possible moment.
And that should wrap it up for our main courses. Oh wait....I see the waiter is bringing another dish. What could it be?
(lifts platter cover)....a microwave hot-dog from Citgo??? WTF??? This must be Chavey Country. Venezuela. How could I possibly forget.
Chavez is the easiest element to predict, since his options are so limited. He has no army. He says he will build one. I would expect him to hold true to that. A large Venezuelan army could prove crucial to Ahmadinejad's plan to overthrow America. It would be a large dagger aimed at our.....crotch?? In any event, it would serve the Axis' strategy of pinning down more American forces in areas where we really don't need them. I would also expect Chavez to embargo oil to the USA just prior to Ahmadinejad's big show. He will also begin nuclear saber-rattling by cozying up to Kim Jong and Ahmadinejad with regards to nuclear technology, power plant construction, and shipments of uranium ore.
And now, FINALLY, the desserts. What we can expect from other strategic areas of the world in response to these events as they unfold. There's a large tray here, so pass them around and everyone take a small sample.
Europe will do nothing until an Islamic nuke is detonated on their soil. Period. I may have under-estimated them...but I don't think so. So until then, I expect US exports of Kleenex to double...'cause that's all these nose-pickers are good for at present. Forget about Europe. Until an Islamic nuke destroys Rome, they aren't a player.
Russia. The Russians have much to gain from this war. They will be the largest oil producer on Earth if the Saudi's end up faltering. But again, I expect no action on the part of Russia, other than political mewling. Since the Soviet Union's untimely demise (thank you, President Reagan!!!) the Russians have come up lame when we get to the dramatic parts of the 'Nutcracker Suite'....it you catch my meaning. They are the quintessential paper-tiger.
China. China sits in the cat-bird seat. They are not seriously threatened by Islam nor Al Queda. They have no imminent threats or enemies. And by simply sitting on the sideline, they stand to become the rising superpower on Earth by default. To jeopardize that possibility for the sake of meddling, makes zero sense. And the Chinese ALWAYS make sense. Chinese sense. I would expect more isolationism and massive industrialization from them. Another non-player.
Japan. The Land of Nippon is one of the larger reasons that the Chinese will be doing very little in this war. Kim Jong and the North Koreans genuinely scare the Japanese and they have made the decision to re-arm. We are looking at about three years for them to do so, and by then, Ahmadinejad will be well into his attacks, however they go. Japan will keep the Chinese from meddling and the North Koreans from expanding. A non-player for three more years.
Rome. The largest failure of all. This Pope has been less than miserable. He has meekly and humbly retreated from every single attack by the Islamic junkyard dog. He has become the international symbol of Christian cowardice and has motivated millions of moslems into believing that Christianity is dying. Expect more of the same. If the Pope converted to Islam tomorrow, it would not shock me. A victim.
OPEC. Gas prices will soar once hostilities break out. Plan ahead.
And finally, the chocolate eclair of the plate....politics. The most difficult of all to handicap, since everything will hinge on the IDF success or failure at taking out all of Ahmadinejad's nukes in their air-strike...or ours...whichever the case may be. If IDF takes out the nukes, then I would expect America to continue the 50-50 political and social split that exists today. Republicans would be on the defensive in that scenario. If IDF DOES NOT get all of the nukes, and Ahmadinejad retaliates or manages to strike first, then the Republicans will win overwhelmingly and the Democrat Party will cease to exist as a functional political entity. Think Air America. However, an undesirable side-effect of this will be about 18% of our population actively joining up with the Hezbollah cells already present here in America that will have been activated by Iran at that time. For a while, there will be much violence and some urban areas of total anarchy.
This is the last shot for the hardcore liberals. If the global Islamic jihad doesn't wipe out America, they have few options besides becoming terrorists themselves. Joining Americans in defending the nation is simply not an option for the 18% hardcore libtards. They will strap bombs to themselves and blow up grade-schools and buses first.
And there we have it, dinner is finished with a flair!!!
Now I know I promised you guys "The Answer" in this installment, but there simply is too much material for me to cover right here. Soooooooo.............
The bar will be open and fully stocked for your choice of after-dinner beverages for Part Three, when we digest all of this material and I will tell you how we are going to win this war.
Waiter? Check please....